NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.  

NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85 per cent chance of an above-normal season, a 10 per cent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 per cent chance of a below-normal season. 

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).

Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation. 

As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics.  

At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.