Dominica expects early start to 2024 Wet Season
Early relief from the effects of the Dry Season are expected in Dominica as the meteorological service says rainfall amounts are likely to increase from April.
The met office notes the first half of the 2023/2024 dry season (December to February) was wetter than usual at the Douglas-Charles Airport while the Canefield Airport recorded below-normal rainfall amounts.
A relatively wetter pattern is likely during the second half of the 2024 Dry Season (March to May). While the usual dry conditions may be experienced during March, a rapid increase in rainfall amounts from April into May is possible (medium to high confidence).
Increased frequency of wet and extremely wet days and spells are likely (medium to high confidence). These conditions are expected to continue well throughout the upcoming wet season (June to November) thus increasing the chances for life-threatening hazards such as flash floods, landslides and rockfalls across the island.
The met office notes heat concerns are expected to begin as early as April and continue well into October/ November 2024 leading to yet another year where heat stress and other heat-related complications are possible.
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is also expected to come to an early start with higher chances for above-normal activities.
It said driving these conditions are recent observations which showed a transition from El Niño to ENSO Neutral conditions in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the April-May-June 2024 season (79 per cent chance) with increasing chances of La Niña evolving during the June-July-August season (55 per cent chance). These phases usually lead to wetter conditions across the Eastern Caribbean.
Additionally, warmer than usual Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) continue to be maintained across the Caribbean Sea and Tropical North Atlantic Ocean. This is expected to continue during the upcoming season. Warmer than usual SSTs often result in warmer than usual air temperatures, a more humid environment and an increased frequency of rainfall events which could be extreme.
Considering this, the Dominica Meteorological Service has advised the public and all climate-sensitive sectors to begin all the necessary plans and preparations for a wetter and hotter than usual period as flooding and landslides usually occur with extreme and prolonged rainfall events.
It added that hurricane preparedness activities should be done as early as possible to minimise last minute rush.
