CariCOF: Storms and shower activity could be more erratic

The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says it is likely that storm and shower activity may be more erratic, while heat will remain in record territory, in particular in the Lesser Antilles, during the period July to September this year.

CariCof, which has already noted that “2024 is shaping up to be a year of climate extremes in the Caribbean,” said temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will likely continue to progressively cool into a La Niña while minus near record warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean are set to continue over the next three months.

In its latest edition of the Caribbean Climate Outlooks Newsletter, released here on Friday, CariCOF said therefore, an intense peak of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Caribbean Wet Season and Heat Season, will imply “frequent and intense episodes of oppressive humid heat, tropical cyclones and severe weather”.

It warned that tropical cyclones and severe weather pattern will result “in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.

“Should the intrusion of dry Saharan air – which usually peak through July – be more frequent than usual, storm and shower activity may be more erratic, while heat will remain in record territory, in particular in the Lesser Antilles.”

CariCOF said that severe or worse short-term drought has developed in Belize, northern Guyana, and the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) as of June 1 this year, while long term drought will be experienced in Western Cuba, French Guiana, eastern most parts of Guadeloupe, northern Guyana and Suriname.

It said long term drought to the end of November this year, is also evolving northern French Guiana and Trinidad and might possibly develop or continue in parts of Belize, central French Guiana and Tobago.